Birdflu Mailing List: Update on birdflu

[William Weir (wweir1]

TO:  UU bird flu discussion group
RE:  Update on bird flu and emergency preparedness

Here is the latest WHO map of bird flu in humans 2008:
http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_H5N1Human_2008_FIMS_20080910.png

In five countries so far this year, worst being Indonesia (20 cases, 17
deaths), the bird flu continues to smolder more widely among birds.
Note the ratio of deaths to cases.

We do not know whether or when this very dangerous new strain will break out
through gaining capacity for transmission human to human, as epidemiologists
have predicted it will.   World Health Organization continues to work with
national, provincial and local public health authorities striving to track
the virus as it changes and to keep it from spreading.

There are other maps showing more widespread findings among dead birds, all
so far in the eastern hemisphere.
Its prevalence among birds is much wider still, endemic but not fatal to
many birds.

Where eastern and western hemisphere birds intermingle, in Alaska and
Siberia, monitoring for transmission to western birds is extensive.

But since many Asian birds are sold into South America, some authorities
predict its spread from South to North America, indicating need for more
extensive monitoring to our south.

Google "WHO avian influenza" for more data, maps and information.  Or go to
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/

A special report from CNN this month featured the Global Viral Forecasting
Initiative and points to other viruses that are or may soon become pandemic.
See http://gvfi.org/

I am glad that we have not in recent years been confronted with any
pandemic, but even with WHO and underfunded public heath authorities doing
their best, it is not likely to prevent one in our future.

I hope this is helpful -- and reason to wish you Happy Holidays.

If you have news to share, please feel free to reach all of us by addressing
birdflu [at] muusja.org

Bill Weir (retired UU minister and former senior research analyst for MN
Center for Health Statistics)
Chair, Committee on Emergency Preparedness,
First Unitarian Society of Minneapolis
new email: wweir1 [at] gmail.com
new phone: 763-568-7022
(MUUSJA webmaster Fred Olson, please update these in archive of bird flu
messages.)